USD/CNH seems to have moved into a consolidative phase – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang now see USD/CNH navigating within the 7.0500-7.2200 range in the next few weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We stated yesterday that ‘further volatility is not ruled out but USD is likely to trade within a narrower range of 7.1450/7.2250’. Our view was incorrect as USD rose to 7.2144 before staging a sharp and swift sell-off (low has been 7.0890). The sharp and rapid decline appears to be overdone and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. For today, USD is more likely to trade between 7.0800 and 7.1500.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected USD to strengthen for more than 2 weeks now. After USD surged to 7.2668 and retreated, we indicated yesterday (29 Sep, spot at 7.1800) that the odds of USD rising to 7.3000 have diminished. However, we did not expect the subsequent sharp sell-off as USD plunged to a low of 7.0890. The breach of our ‘strong support’ at 7.1400 indicates that the USD rally from more than 2 weeks ago has topped for now. The current movement is likely the early stages of a consolidation phase. In view of the recent high volatility, USD could trade within a broad range of 7.0500/7.2200 for a period of time.”