NZ: CPI likely to print 1.8%/y - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that their December quarter CPI forecast of flat/q and 1.8%/y forecast (same as consensus) is slightly lower than the RBNZ’s 2%/y, but is via an unexpected -3.5%/q slump in fuel prices (Private transport -2.0%/q).

Key Quotes

“Most market forecasts are actually +0.1% but the tail is skewed to the downside (including a few looking for -0.1%/q). Most services prices are expected to creep higher; we know the seasonal slide in Food (-1.4%/q) and a seasonal pop in public transport (+8.4%/q). After official CPI is released, the RBNZ releases sector factoral model CPIs, core measures that RBNZ Governor Orr watches (3pm NZT).”