Australia: Unconvincing bounce in dwelling approvals - Westpac

Matthew Hassan, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that Australian dwelling approvals rose 3.3% in September, reversing part of the 13% slide over the previous two months but with the monthly move a touch below the consensus expectations of a 3.8% rise.

Key Quotes

“Despite this, the detail was weak. The monthly gain centred on the famously volatile high rise unit segment, which had fallen sharply over the previous two months. The September high rise bounce was also heavily concentrated in Victoria. Approvals outside of this narrow state segment were significantly weaker (our estimates suggest total dwelling approvals ex Vic high rise were down about 7.5%mth).”

“Overall, the headline gain in dwelling approvals this month is a 'head fake'. Excluding a sharp spike in Vic high rise, something that is very unlikely to sustain, reveals a fairly broad based picture of weakness.”

“Tightening credit conditions are clearly impacting both residential and non residential sectors. The pace of decline remains hard to pin-point but building activity is more clearly tracking towards a contraction in activity heading into 2019.”

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