UK: Focus on public finances and industrial trends data - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that at the time of the March Spring Statement, the OBR’s forecast was for a £45.2bn PSNB deficit for 2017-18 – or 2.2% of UK GDP, which would imply a £1.7bn rise in the deficit in March this year compared with the same month in 2017 (i.e., a deficit of £3.8bn during the month).

Key Quotes

“March’s deficit figures carry more than the usual market resonance as the Debt Management Office announces revisions to its remit – which will depend on the outturn of the central government net cash requirement.”

“UK CBI industrial trends survey: The orders balance slipped to just +4% in the March survey. That may have been owing to poor weather conditions (though activity growth in the manufacturing PMI survey did not slow). We forecast a recovery to its recent average of around +10% in April.”