UK unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% in January - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for the UK unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% in January (mkt 4.4%) after unexpectedly ticking a tenth higher last month.

Key Quotes

“What might be more interesting is the wage data, which has been showing some concrete improvement over the last few months. We look for both headline and ex-bonus wage growth to nudge higher to 2.6% y/y (mkt 2.6%), but look for further improvement in the private sector paid measure, where we look for a 2.8% y/y reading, leaving us on track to cross the 3% y/y threshold as soon as next month. The 3m/3m annualised trend has been sitting above 3% for the last three months now.”

“Also out today are the February PSNB figures, which will be widely ignored after the recent spring budget, as well as March CBI industrial orders.”