UK: Employment looks set to have fallen by roughly 35,000 - ING

It's certainly fair to say the UK jobs market is going through a rough patch and the headline measure of employment looks set to have fallen by roughly 35,000 thousand (3M/3M average) in October, according to analysts at ING.

Key Quotes

“It's entirely plausible that this is just noise, but the latest services PMI also suggested that the rate of hiring has slowed.” 

“One explanation is that the sluggish growth we've seen this year is starting to take its toll  - in the same way, that a burst of economic strength at the end of 2016 buoyed the jobs market earlier in 2017.”

“Wage growth: If the jobs market is indeed starting to turn, then this could have consequences for wage growth. There has been some renewed momentum in earnings over recent months, although part of that is down to the higher national living wage. The Bank of England expects a real pick-up next year following some positive signals from their agents. There are skill shortages reported in certain sectors, although the wider economic slowdown, slimmer margins (as import costs rise) and political uncertainty mean wage growth may not take off quite as much as the Bank is hoping. Expect average earnings growth (ex. bonuses) to stay at 2.2% on Wednesday.”