27 Dec 2013
Flash: EUR/USD: Short Squeeze? - TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - EUR/USD surged over 1% overnight without as much as a headline to drive the move. These are certainly illiquid markets and with an empty calendar for the rest of the North American session we can expect more of the same whippy price action, commented the TD Securties team.
Key Quotes
"The squeeze on USD longs pushed EUR/USD just shy of 1.3900 in recent hours, an important long term resistance on the weekly charts (shown in bottom chart to the right)".
"Seasonal European bank funding patterns along with LTRO repayments have been credited with lifting EUR/USD over the past two months, but that influence should wane with only a few sessions before the end of the year".
"Fundamentally we struggle to see justification for this move, and we look to fade it into the start of 2014. From a relative value perspective, the picture is even more convincing, with EZ-US spreads moving sharply in favour of the USD in recent days (top chart to the right)".
Key Quotes
"The squeeze on USD longs pushed EUR/USD just shy of 1.3900 in recent hours, an important long term resistance on the weekly charts (shown in bottom chart to the right)".
"Seasonal European bank funding patterns along with LTRO repayments have been credited with lifting EUR/USD over the past two months, but that influence should wane with only a few sessions before the end of the year".
"Fundamentally we struggle to see justification for this move, and we look to fade it into the start of 2014. From a relative value perspective, the picture is even more convincing, with EZ-US spreads moving sharply in favour of the USD in recent days (top chart to the right)".