IMF: Global growth seen falling to 2.8% this year in severe scenario – RBC CM

Sue Trinh, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, notes that the IMF cut its global growth forecast for this year from 3.2% to 3.1%, unchanged from 2015.

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“The 2017 forecast was cut from 3.5% to 3.4%. The new forecasts are based on the assumption that the UK and EU reach new trade agreements that avoid a “large increase in economic barriers.” However, if talks break down, in a “severe” scenario, global growth is seen falling to 2.8% this year and next. The forecast for world trade volumes was cut by 0.4%pts this year to 2.7%.”