GBP/USD bulls taking early lead to 20 dma

GBP/USD had rallied before the Tokyo open to the 20 dma at 1.4471 and EUR/GBP dropped like a stone as well leaving EUR/USD sidelined while GBP/JPY broke through stops to the upside.

As we approach the EU referendum, we can expect to see more of these moves in thin liquidity as well as full markets as the uncertainty and subsequent implications for the European markets especially come into question. The latest average of polls taken from the 27th April until yesterday are a dead heat at 50/50 according to NatCen Social Research, Britain's leading independent social research agency.

Meanwhile, there has been no data so far for the UK, but later today we await the PPI and CPI figures for April that are expected to be in decline and further add to the idea that a Brexit is taking its toll on the economy. Despite this bullish spike, today's data could subsequently weigh on GBP/USD.

GBP/USD levels

GBP/USD is now through the 55 sma on the 4hr sticks and has tough resistance ahead at the 11th May highs of 1.4487. Failures to continue on will likely be faded, but a break of the 100 sma on the same 4hr time frame at 1.4497 will open scope for positive closes on the 1.45 handle and create a bullish bias. However, analysts at Commerzbank argued, "Only a rise and daily close above 1.4695 will neutralise our outlook (not favoured) and trigger a move to at least 1.4830, the 200 day ma."

To the downside, the analyst's case suggest that only a close below 1.4319, the 55 day ma will the chart picture start to deteriorate to leave the 1.4180 2 month uptrend exposed.