29 Apr 2016
China: April manufacturing PMI preview - ING
Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, thinks that the Chinese manufacturing recovery has legs and they’re reviewing their yearend policy interest rate forecasts for upward revision.
Key Quotes
“April official manufacturing PMIs is due at 9am on May 1 and the Caixin counterpart, at 9:45am on May 3. The consensus forecasts are 50.3 (prior 50.2) and 49.8 (prior 49.7) respectively. There was no mistaking the pick-up in economic activity in March. We think policy stimulus and the release of pent-up demand were responsible but different views on this make for different views about the durability of the pick-up.
We don’t think even the most bearish analysts think the pick-up petered out in April, which is reflected in the consensus forecasts. We’re in the camp that thinks the recovery has legs and we’re reviewing our yearend policy interest rate forecasts, 3.85% for the 1- year lending rate and 1.00% for the 1-year deposit rate, for upward revision.”
Key Quotes
“April official manufacturing PMIs is due at 9am on May 1 and the Caixin counterpart, at 9:45am on May 3. The consensus forecasts are 50.3 (prior 50.2) and 49.8 (prior 49.7) respectively. There was no mistaking the pick-up in economic activity in March. We think policy stimulus and the release of pent-up demand were responsible but different views on this make for different views about the durability of the pick-up.
We don’t think even the most bearish analysts think the pick-up petered out in April, which is reflected in the consensus forecasts. We’re in the camp that thinks the recovery has legs and we’re reviewing our yearend policy interest rate forecasts, 3.85% for the 1- year lending rate and 1.00% for the 1-year deposit rate, for upward revision.”