16 Mar 2016
US: After disappointing retail sales, all eyes on FOMC – ANZ
Research Team at ANZ, notes that the US retail sales data for February were disappointing, with the control group unchanged and January's increase in the control measure revised down to +0.2% m/m vs +0.6% m/m initially reported.
Key Quotes
“The clear implication is that it provides a dovish platform for the FOMC statement today and Yellen's press conference. The core PPI (ex-food and energy) continued to improve, rising to +1.2% y/y vs +0.6% and the Empire Manufacturing Index was better than expected at +0.6, its first positive reading in eight months.
But the main focus was retail sales and that was disappointing, if largely driven by lower receipts at service stations (down 4.4% m/m) due to the fall in petrol prices. Following the release, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has overall GDP running at 1.9% saar vs 2.3% prior to the data. Private consumption is estimated to be running at 2.7% saar, down from 3.3% prior to the data.”
Key Quotes
“The clear implication is that it provides a dovish platform for the FOMC statement today and Yellen's press conference. The core PPI (ex-food and energy) continued to improve, rising to +1.2% y/y vs +0.6% and the Empire Manufacturing Index was better than expected at +0.6, its first positive reading in eight months.
But the main focus was retail sales and that was disappointing, if largely driven by lower receipts at service stations (down 4.4% m/m) due to the fall in petrol prices. Following the release, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has overall GDP running at 1.9% saar vs 2.3% prior to the data. Private consumption is estimated to be running at 2.7% saar, down from 3.3% prior to the data.”