7 Mar 2016
ECB: 20bp cut in the deposit rate and a TLTRO extension in play - SocGen
Research Team at Societe Generale, are looking for a 20bp cut in the deposit rate and a TLTRO extension in the forthcoming ECB meet.
Key Quotes
“These are seen as more likely than an extension of the range of assets they buy. A ‘bigger than expected’ rate cut in the face of a market which really isn’t sure what to expect, coming after a US employment report that was solid even if the wage data give the fed no reason to act in March, may well be negative for the Euro.
If the market is unsure about what the ECB will do, and what impact it could have, it is also unsure about the FX effects of negative rate cuts after the BOJ’s botched-up move last month. But EUR/USD may well re-test 1.08 again this week and if/when the current range does break, I expect it to be to the downside.”
Key Quotes
“These are seen as more likely than an extension of the range of assets they buy. A ‘bigger than expected’ rate cut in the face of a market which really isn’t sure what to expect, coming after a US employment report that was solid even if the wage data give the fed no reason to act in March, may well be negative for the Euro.
If the market is unsure about what the ECB will do, and what impact it could have, it is also unsure about the FX effects of negative rate cuts after the BOJ’s botched-up move last month. But EUR/USD may well re-test 1.08 again this week and if/when the current range does break, I expect it to be to the downside.”