11 Nov 2013
Flash: NZD/USD, below 0.8280 should retest 0.8195 - ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) -The broader consolidation pattern (triangle in the weekly) has been reaffirmed by the pullback from the 0.8540-50 area, notes Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ.
Key Quotes
"The bias now will be for retracements of the rally seen since July to develop into year end. Some sharp rebounds could refresh the potential of a full test of the 0.8620-50 area, but this should be short-lived. Another slide below 0.8280 should trigger a secondary slide towards at least the 0.8100 amidst background risk of a full retracement of the triangle range."
"Rebounds off horizontal support, just below 0.8200, are bound to raise talk of a “Head and Shoulders” pattern developing. It should be noted that such patterns are most commonly formed within consolidations rather than signalling a reversal."
"Given that the current pattern (if it develops) would be within a broader triangle, this again suggests that it would be a corrective pattern and therefore have less dynamic downside potential."
"Either way, a slide below 0.8280 should trigger a sharp retest of 0.8195 within a potential slide towards 0.8115 and possibly even 0.8010-15. A surge above 0.8500 is needed to alter this profile."
Key Quotes
"The bias now will be for retracements of the rally seen since July to develop into year end. Some sharp rebounds could refresh the potential of a full test of the 0.8620-50 area, but this should be short-lived. Another slide below 0.8280 should trigger a secondary slide towards at least the 0.8100 amidst background risk of a full retracement of the triangle range."
"Rebounds off horizontal support, just below 0.8200, are bound to raise talk of a “Head and Shoulders” pattern developing. It should be noted that such patterns are most commonly formed within consolidations rather than signalling a reversal."
"Given that the current pattern (if it develops) would be within a broader triangle, this again suggests that it would be a corrective pattern and therefore have less dynamic downside potential."
"Either way, a slide below 0.8280 should trigger a sharp retest of 0.8195 within a potential slide towards 0.8115 and possibly even 0.8010-15. A surge above 0.8500 is needed to alter this profile."