30 Dec 2015
US Q4 GDP tracking update up by 0.2pp to 1.6% - Nomura
FXStreet (Guatemala) - The advance estimate of trade in goods for November showed a narrower trade deficit than we had expected.
Key Quotes:
"Both real exports and imports of goods declined in November, while we had expected increases. In addition, real imports were revised lower in October while real exports were revised higher."
"As such, the data today imply a narrower trade deficit in Q4 than we had previously assumed, which is positive for GDP tracking.
However, the lower imports in Q4 also suggest less inventory investment which would weigh on GDP. Thus, on balance, we have revised our Q4 GDP tracking estimate up by 0.2pp to 1.6%, from 1.4%, previously."
Key Quotes:
"Both real exports and imports of goods declined in November, while we had expected increases. In addition, real imports were revised lower in October while real exports were revised higher."
"As such, the data today imply a narrower trade deficit in Q4 than we had previously assumed, which is positive for GDP tracking.
However, the lower imports in Q4 also suggest less inventory investment which would weigh on GDP. Thus, on balance, we have revised our Q4 GDP tracking estimate up by 0.2pp to 1.6%, from 1.4%, previously."