16 Nov 2015
NZD/USD still undervalued - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that their short term fair value model for NZD/USD shows it remains undervalued, this week by around 6 cents.
Key Quotes
“Fair value has fallen to the 0.70-0.72 range, thanks to falls in the NZ-US interest rate spread, commodity prices and risk sentiment. NZD/USD undervaluation has persisted since mid-2015. One explanation is the US dollar’s overvaluation, markets pricing more Fed tightening into the US dollar than is implied by US interest rates. NZ dairy prices have fallen 16% over the past month, via the two GDT auctions. This week’s GDT auction is currently priced by NZX futures to result in a further 10% fall.”
Key Quotes
“Fair value has fallen to the 0.70-0.72 range, thanks to falls in the NZ-US interest rate spread, commodity prices and risk sentiment. NZD/USD undervaluation has persisted since mid-2015. One explanation is the US dollar’s overvaluation, markets pricing more Fed tightening into the US dollar than is implied by US interest rates. NZ dairy prices have fallen 16% over the past month, via the two GDT auctions. This week’s GDT auction is currently priced by NZX futures to result in a further 10% fall.”