19 Oct 2015
USD/CAD room for a squeeze higher near term – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen believes there is still room for another leg higher in the pair in the short-term.
Key Quotes
“Canada is in an adjustment process amid a new lower oil price environment and a weaker CAD is a key element in this”.
“The 2015 rate cuts show that the BoC has no problem easing monetary policy at a time when the Fed is moving in the opposite direction and this ‘risk’ points to some further upside in the cross near term”.
“However, the market is already pricing in a small chance of a another cut, which we do not see materialising, and this limits outright CAD downside”.
“With oil bottoming out and the US domestic growth outlook still decent, we think the pace of USD/CAD appreciation will slow beyond the first Fed hike in January”.
“Further out, we see the cross stabilising, driven by a gradual oil recovery, the BoC staying on hold in 2016, and a shallow Fed hiking cycle”.
Key Quotes
“Canada is in an adjustment process amid a new lower oil price environment and a weaker CAD is a key element in this”.
“The 2015 rate cuts show that the BoC has no problem easing monetary policy at a time when the Fed is moving in the opposite direction and this ‘risk’ points to some further upside in the cross near term”.
“However, the market is already pricing in a small chance of a another cut, which we do not see materialising, and this limits outright CAD downside”.
“With oil bottoming out and the US domestic growth outlook still decent, we think the pace of USD/CAD appreciation will slow beyond the first Fed hike in January”.
“Further out, we see the cross stabilising, driven by a gradual oil recovery, the BoC staying on hold in 2016, and a shallow Fed hiking cycle”.