6 Aug 2015
Something is not right about today's Aus jobs - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac provides its take on July's Australian employment data, noting that something is not right when all of the rise in employment comes from one state, is associated with one gender and is combined with an outsized rise in participation.
Key Quotes
"The three month average change in total employment was 29.2k in July (highest since March 2014) compared to 13.5k in June, 27.1k in May, 26.4k in April and 28.0k in March.
So it suggests the underlying trend in employment has returned to its earlier year strength."
"The reason for the large leap in unemployment was a surge in participation, from 64.8% to 65.1% which is back to the average since March 2008. First time since early 2013 that the participation rate has been back around average."
"Part-time employment continues to grow at a more robust pace than full-time employment. Part-time employment has grown 120.1k/3.4%yr compared to 123.5k/1.5%yr for full-time employment. Just about all of the employment creation came in NSW, +29.5, and in female employment +4.7k. NSW also reported the largest surge in female participation, from 57.5 to 58.4."
"It is a clear sign something is not right when all of the rise in employment comes from one state, is associated with one gender and is combined with an outsized rise in participation. Our current forecast for the unemployment rate to peak at 6½% in late 2015 is based on participation holding around current levels."
Key Quotes
"The three month average change in total employment was 29.2k in July (highest since March 2014) compared to 13.5k in June, 27.1k in May, 26.4k in April and 28.0k in March.
So it suggests the underlying trend in employment has returned to its earlier year strength."
"The reason for the large leap in unemployment was a surge in participation, from 64.8% to 65.1% which is back to the average since March 2008. First time since early 2013 that the participation rate has been back around average."
"Part-time employment continues to grow at a more robust pace than full-time employment. Part-time employment has grown 120.1k/3.4%yr compared to 123.5k/1.5%yr for full-time employment. Just about all of the employment creation came in NSW, +29.5, and in female employment +4.7k. NSW also reported the largest surge in female participation, from 57.5 to 58.4."
"It is a clear sign something is not right when all of the rise in employment comes from one state, is associated with one gender and is combined with an outsized rise in participation. Our current forecast for the unemployment rate to peak at 6½% in late 2015 is based on participation holding around current levels."