16 Jun 2015
AUD/USD: Bearish outlook on the year - JPM
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at JP Morgan offered their expectations on AUD/USD over the course of the year.
Key Quotes:
"We continue to expect the AUD to decline over the course of the year. Our Sep-15 target is 0.74, and our Mar-16 target is 0.71."
"The RBA delivered a rate cut in May, and while they dialed back their easing bias, the staff’s forecasts for growth and inflation were lowered meaningfully, which suggests the risks to the cash rate will be on the downside for some time."
"Since then, the RBA have moved to a slightly more explicit easing bias, with Governor Stevens noting in a recent speech that the RBA was “…open to further easing” providing it was beneficial to growth."
"Moreover, we expect the bounce in iron ore to be temporary (we forecast a trough of $US43/t in 3Q15), which should also act as a drag on AUD in the months ahead."
Key Quotes:
"We continue to expect the AUD to decline over the course of the year. Our Sep-15 target is 0.74, and our Mar-16 target is 0.71."
"The RBA delivered a rate cut in May, and while they dialed back their easing bias, the staff’s forecasts for growth and inflation were lowered meaningfully, which suggests the risks to the cash rate will be on the downside for some time."
"Since then, the RBA have moved to a slightly more explicit easing bias, with Governor Stevens noting in a recent speech that the RBA was “…open to further easing” providing it was beneficial to growth."
"Moreover, we expect the bounce in iron ore to be temporary (we forecast a trough of $US43/t in 3Q15), which should also act as a drag on AUD in the months ahead."