8 Apr 2015
AUD/USD pressured by commodity concerns – OCBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, expects AUD/USD to maintain the resistance at 0.7700 in the near-term, with China/Commodity concerns set to keep the pair a big pressured.
Key Quotes
“The AUD may continue to derive a partial reprieve from background USD resilience in the near term after the RBA stood pat on Tuesday but we note that the pair has by and large continued to loiter at the lower end of its recent multi-week range – a likely manifestation of sustained China/commodity concerns. In the near term, the 0.7700 resistance and the 55-day MA (0.7761) may remain.”
“Regarding the RBA’s latest monetary policy statement, we think the central bank has turned a shade more succinct in terms of its structural view on the AUD. The meeting statement noted that “Prices for key Australian exports have also been falling and therefore Australia’s terms of trade are continuing to decline.”
“On the AUD, the statement also added that “Further depreciation seems likely, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices”.”
“The RBA also reiterated that “A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy” and that “Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead,…””
“Overall, we think undue upticks in the AUD-USD may continue to be met with a healthy dose of skepticism.”
Key Quotes
“The AUD may continue to derive a partial reprieve from background USD resilience in the near term after the RBA stood pat on Tuesday but we note that the pair has by and large continued to loiter at the lower end of its recent multi-week range – a likely manifestation of sustained China/commodity concerns. In the near term, the 0.7700 resistance and the 55-day MA (0.7761) may remain.”
“Regarding the RBA’s latest monetary policy statement, we think the central bank has turned a shade more succinct in terms of its structural view on the AUD. The meeting statement noted that “Prices for key Australian exports have also been falling and therefore Australia’s terms of trade are continuing to decline.”
“On the AUD, the statement also added that “Further depreciation seems likely, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices”.”
“The RBA also reiterated that “A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy” and that “Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead,…””
“Overall, we think undue upticks in the AUD-USD may continue to be met with a healthy dose of skepticism.”