13 Feb 2015
EUR/USD upside risks above 1.1445 – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team gives the technical outlook for EUR/USD, noting that the chances of an upside bounce towards 1.17/1.18 are high above 1.1445/50.
Key Quotes
“EURUSD’s sideways shift since late January has served to ease spot out of the strong downtrend in place through the end of 2014 and possibly raises the prospect of a corrective rally in the EUR in the next few weeks. From being broadly and negatively aligned across a range of timeframes, trend momentum studies for EURUSD are shifting to neutral or slightly bullish on the shorter term oscillators.”
“The idea of wide and choppy range trade developing over the next few weeks potentially “fits” with the seasonal trends in EURUSD—sharply lower in January and then sideways into March and possibly a little beyond.”
“From a technical perspective, developments suggest that we need to rein back our recent bearishness on the EUR to some degree at least and concede the risk of a bounce developing above 1.1445/50 to 1.17/1.18 in the next few weeks before the underlying trend lower resumes.”
“While the longer-term trend lower persists, shortterm corrective moves are clearly possible if only to relieve the oversold condition that has quickly accumulated in the market after the late 2014 slide in the EUR.”
“We remain bearish overall but feel the longer term charts support the impression of a EUR consolidation developing near-term.”
“Major, long-term resistance stands at 1.1783 (23.6% retracement of the 1.40/1.10 drop) and 1.2205/35 (38.2% Fib and 200-m MA respectively).”
Key Quotes
“EURUSD’s sideways shift since late January has served to ease spot out of the strong downtrend in place through the end of 2014 and possibly raises the prospect of a corrective rally in the EUR in the next few weeks. From being broadly and negatively aligned across a range of timeframes, trend momentum studies for EURUSD are shifting to neutral or slightly bullish on the shorter term oscillators.”
“The idea of wide and choppy range trade developing over the next few weeks potentially “fits” with the seasonal trends in EURUSD—sharply lower in January and then sideways into March and possibly a little beyond.”
“From a technical perspective, developments suggest that we need to rein back our recent bearishness on the EUR to some degree at least and concede the risk of a bounce developing above 1.1445/50 to 1.17/1.18 in the next few weeks before the underlying trend lower resumes.”
“While the longer-term trend lower persists, shortterm corrective moves are clearly possible if only to relieve the oversold condition that has quickly accumulated in the market after the late 2014 slide in the EUR.”
“We remain bearish overall but feel the longer term charts support the impression of a EUR consolidation developing near-term.”
“Major, long-term resistance stands at 1.1783 (23.6% retracement of the 1.40/1.10 drop) and 1.2205/35 (38.2% Fib and 200-m MA respectively).”