USD/INR to hold around 82.00 by Q3 and drift slightly lower to 81.50 by year-end – Commerzbank

USD/INR has held within a narrow 2.5% range, between 81-83, since the start of the year. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Strong economic monentum

Reserve Bank of India is content to see a relatively stable USD/INR. 

India’s strong economic performance, lower oil and commodity prices, and RBI's rate hikes are supportive factors for the Indian Rupee.

We project the USD/INR pair to hold around the 82.00 level by Q3 2023 and drift slightly lower to 81.50 by end-2023 and to 81.00 by end-2024.