EUR/USD: Lower certainty of ECB hikes to weigh on the Euro – OCBC

EUR/USD is set to face downsidre pressure, in the view of economists at OCBC Bank.

Downside risk

“Markets appear to price in slightly lower certainty of a rate hike in June and slightly lower peak rate.”

“We reiterate that a downshift in pace of hike does not represent a downshift in ECB’s hawkish rhetoric as officials are still looking for further tightening (vs. Fed potentially on pause) while ECB is expected to quicken its QT pace.” 

“Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside.”

“Support at 1.0990 (21 DMA), 1.0850 levels (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.1080/95 levels (2023 high), 1.12 levels.”