Upside surprise in Canadian jobs numbers to increase odds of another 50 bps by the BoC – ING

Payrolls will be published in Canada today. An upside surprise will increase chances to see a 50 basis points hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC) next week, economists at ING report.

Jobs numbers quite key for BoC

“Consensus is centred around a very small 10K increase, and there is a high chance we could see a negative read. This would probably keep markets leaning in favour of a 25 bps rate hike by the BoC next week (currently, 30 bps are in the price). However, we see room for some upside surprise today in the jobs numbers and see a higher chance of another 50 bps by the BoC.”

“USD/CAD may soon re-test the 1.3290 100-Day Moving Average, but would require a more steady rebound in crude prices to keep the bearish momentum going.”

See – Canadian Jobs Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, more lackluster performance